送交者: Masquerade 于 February 01, 2008 17:49:54:
回答: Wednesday, Jan 23, session one 由 Masquerade 于 February 01, 2008 11:56:29:
L. W. Brigham
The scenarios creation work of the Arctic Council's Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA) has identified two key uncertainties which may determine the future of Arctic marine transport: the demand for natural resources & trade, and governance. During the next three decades regional exploration and development of Arctic oil and gas, hard minerals, and fisheries will be highly influential in the growth of marine operations in the Arctic Ocean. However, governance stability - the operating legal and regulatory structures - will also be a critical uncertainty in shaping the future of Arctic marine navigation. By crossing these two uncertainties, the AMSA Team developed a matrix of four scenarios that are plausible and relevant to the range of Arctic stakeholders: Polar Preserve, Polar Lows, Arctic Race and Arctic Saga. Changing Arctic marine access in response to the continuing retreat of sea ice should provide opportunities for longer seasons of navigation, especially around the coastal seas of the Arctic basin. Several Selected, wildcard factors also loom large as important and add considerable uncertainty to the future: the management of multiple ocean uses in regional Arctic seas; the regulation of ship emissions and discharges; the near-term delimitation of the Arctic continental shelves by the Arctic states under the terms of Arctic 76 of the UN Convention on the law of the Sea; the impacts of new icebreaking technologies on convoy operations; and, the implications of future pipelines in the Russian Arctic and other Arctic regions for Arctic marine transport systems. Unclear is the future of seasonal or even year -round transit (trans-arctic) voyages in the central Arctic Ocean or along historic coastal routes. The findings of AMSA scheduled for completion in spring 2009 will provide a framework for the Arctic states to respond to the challenges of increased marine activity in the Arctic Ocean through the development of effective marine safety and environmental protection strategies.