送交者: clriufs3 于 December 07, 2011 01:28:19:
回答: 你的问题是很多人都在问的 由 戈壁 于 December 06, 2011 20:24:08:
I am one of those aspiring armchair economists.
1. After 2008, there is little choice but to stimulate the economy. The fundamental issue, I think is the accumulation of paper surplus.
2. 外贸盈余不但在GDP占很大的直接比例.
According to http://www.economicswebinstitute.org/glossary/gdp.htm, trade surplus only matters to the year it appears. The return on the total reserve is not factored into GDP.
3. 降低出口会造成相关企业倒闭，刺激内需会造成相关产品短缺、引发通货膨胀。
For once, I agree with the free marketeers -- supply & demand make the market. Things will balance out. The respective industries may crash, but labor will move to other industries experiencing boom.
4. 经济泡沫带来的不平衡和分配不公平产生不稳定因素。
In centralized planning system, this need not happen.
5. A quick search on total Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac bonds, came back with two numbers. 5 trillion and 1.5 trillion - within the same page of
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_takeover_of_Fannie_Mae_and_Freddie_Mac
"The on- or off-balance sheet obligations of the two GSEs, which are "independent" corporations rather than federal agencies, are just over $5 trillion,"
"The two GSEs have approximately US$ 1.5 trillion in bonds outstanding,"
They make the percentage China purchased vary widely.
And 其于大部分为美国的退休金等基金持有，actually helps the argument of that article -- nobody cares whether F&F go under. Anybody still extending hope to their 401k or any fund manager?